Threat perceptions from the 'Arab NATO'

Saudi Arabia is busy building what has been dubbed by sections of the media as the “Arab NATO.” It is a coalition of Muslim countries of the world that is in line with the NATO. It’s an ambitious project, which has many hurdles to cross in the coming decades in order to succeed, but such a grouping has the potential to profoundly change the world. If successful, world powers will have to re-calibrate their approach to the Middle East. 

The Middle East has largely been in turmoil for centuries, arguably because of sectarian violence that has now manifested in the form of shadow boxing between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So, Iran’s apprehensions at this stage are understandable. 

There is space for the Arab NATO to play a role in the Middle East. With the US starting to withdraw from the region gradually, and indeed from many parts of the globe, to refocus its energy back home and pick its battles more carefully, Muslim countries may not like to cede any space for Russia-China to step in to replace the US. 

The Middle East has managed to accumulate a lot of petro dollars, and Saudi Arabia in particular has been spending a lot of its wealth on buying defense equipment. If all the countries agree on the agenda, they have the power to project influence across the globe.

How does this concern India? For all its money and defense expenditures, Saudi Arabia and most of the other Middle East countries don’t have the man power or expertise to lead a coalition army from the front. They plan to rely on Pakistani generals. 

The Middle Eastern countries have so far been sympathetic to the Indian cause, but a persistent Pakistan with a lead role in the coalition army could press for a more aggressive stance. In the end all that the South Asian country will manage to do is get the body to pass a few resolutions or make statements. So, there is no imminent danger for India.

The real implication of the Arab NATO could be on Africa. Most of the North African countries are Muslim majority nations. There is also widespread poverty and violence in this region. This would be fertile ground for the new group to flex its muscle. 

The Arab NATO does have an opportunity to play a positive role in the region. However, circumstances may dictate the group to take more practical measures to safeguard its interests. The oil reserves are drying up, crude prices have fallen, and the world is moving ahead with alternate energy. In light of this, the untapped mineral resources of Africa are ripe for the taking.

The mineral resources of Africa could be the pound of flesh the Arab NATO can demand in return for taking on the role of security for the region.